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Threshold Species at the Year’s Turn

Winter birds and hidden skates in a changing coastal system

Late December along the coast does not announce itself loudly. The holidays have passed, the shoreline empties, and the light—almost imperceptibly—begins to return. The winter solstice marks the shortest day of the year, but its ecological counterpart is quieter. The water does not reset. It settles.

This is the moment when the coastal ecosystem stops negotiating with the season and begins to accept it. That acceptance is visible, if you know where to look—above the waterline in the form of a small diving duck, and below the surface in the stillness of a benthic predator that does not announce its presence at all.

In our region, ecologists recognize certain animals as threshold species: species whose presence, or subtle change in behavior, signals that the system has crossed a seasonal threshold in energy, behavior, and stability — moving from late year into what comes next.

Above the Water: When Winter Is No Longer a Question

Male (left) and female (right) Bufflehead ducks enjoying a winter swim | Photo credit: Judy Gallagher, iNaturalist

By late December, one species begins to appear with quiet regularity across protected sounds and estuaries: the Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola).

Buffleheads are not early winter arrivals. They do not surge in during the first cold fronts of autumn, nor do they linger indecisively during seasonal transition. Instead, their presence reflects commitment. By the time buffleheads settle into coastal waters, water temperatures have stabilized at winter lows, turbulence has eased in protected areas, and benthic prey communities—particularly small crustaceans and mollusks—have shifted into predictable winter distributions (Eadie et al., 2000; Goudie et al., 1994).

Ecologically, buffleheads are specialists. They forage by diving, relying on clear water and reliable prey patches. Their winter distribution is shaped not by calendar dates but by energy economics: cold water increases metabolic demands, and winter habitats must reliably repay that cost (Eadie & Kehoe, 2022). Where buffleheads remain, the system has crossed a threshold from fluctuation to stability.

In this way, they function less as migrants and more as indicators. Their presence signals that the coastal year has finished rearranging itself. Winter has arrived—not dramatically, but decisively.

Below the Water: When Stillness Makes Life Visible

Clearnose skate in winter waters | Photo credit: NOAA Fisheries

Below the surface, the signal is subtler.

Skates do not arrive in winter with the clarity of birds overhead. Species such as the Clearnose skate (Rostroraja eglanteria) are present along the southeastern U.S. coast throughout much of the year. What changes in late December is not their location, but their visibility.

As water temperatures drop, skates reduce activity, conserving energy through decreased movement and prolonged periods of resting on the seafloor (Di Santo & Bennett, 2011). This metabolic slowdown coincides with seasonal increases in water clarity driven by reduced biological productivity, lower sediment resuspension, and diminished boat traffic (Cloern et al., 2014). The result is a paradox: winter reveals what summer conceals.

In these conditions, skates become easier to observe—not because they have increased in number, but because the system itself has slowed enough to make persistence visible. Their flattened bodies blend seamlessly into sandy or muddy substrates, a strategy optimized for ambush predation and energy conservation rather than movement (Carrier et al., 2012).

If buffleheads announce that winter has settled, skates confirm it. They represent endurance over motion, patience over migration.

The Ecological Hinge Between Years

Neither of these species marks a beginning. Neither signals renewal or arrival in the way spring migrants do. Instead, they occupy the hinge between years—the moment when the ecosystem accepts the constraints of winter and reorganizes around them.

Late December is not biologically empty. It is a period of recalibration. Energy budgets tighten. Movements become deliberate. Survival depends less on abundance than on efficiency.

Above the water, buffleheads gather where the math works. Below it, skates persist by minimizing expenditure altogether. One is easily seen, the other almost never. Together, they reveal the same truth: the system has crossed a line.

After the Turn

January will bring its own changes. Cold will deepen, or ease. Migratory patterns will sharpen. New signals will emerge. But the moment just after the solstice—just after the holidays—is different. It is when the coast pauses, holds, and commits.

The year does not turn loudly here.
It settles, and then it holds.

References

Carrier, J. C., Musick, J. A., & Heithaus, M. R. (2012). Biology of sharks and their relatives (2nd ed.). CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/b11867 

Cloern, J. E., Foster, S. Q., & Kleckner, A. E. (2014). Phytoplankton primary production in the world’s estuarine–coastal ecosystems. Biogeosciences, 11(9), 2477–2501. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2477-2014 

Di Santo, V., & Bennett, W. A. (2011). Is post-feeding thermotaxis advantageous in elasmobranch fishes? Journal of Fish Biology, 78(7), 1950–1965. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.2011.02976.x 

Eadie, J. M., & Kehoe, F. P. (2022). Energetics and foraging ecology of diving ducks. In P. G. Rodewald (Ed.), The birds of North America. Cornell Lab of Ornithology.
https://doi.org/10.2173/bna 

Eadie, J. M., Savard, J. P. L., & Mallory, M. L. (2000). Barrow’s Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica) and Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola). In A. Poole & F. Gill (Eds.), The birds of North America. Cornell Lab of Ornithology. https://doi.org/10.2173/bna.548 

Goudie, R. I., Brault, S., Conant, B., Kondratyev, A. V., Petersen, M. R., & Vermeer, K. (1994). The status of sea ducks in the North Pacific Rim: Toward their conservation. Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference, 59, 27–49. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70187692

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